2020 may bring about the largest drop in the size of Russia’s population: 158 thousand people (over 1% of the total number of residents of the country). Experts predict that it could be even worse, due to the effects of pandemics.

Why is Russia’s population dwindling?

For a long time the natural growth of Russia’s population was negative: There are not enough kids born to cover for natural deaths, Lenta.ru reported.

Because of the pandemics, the usual numbers of migrants didn’t arrive as usual, since for many years the population drop was propped up by increases in migration, mostly from the countries of the former USSR such as Moldova, Ukraine, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and others. If not for migrants, the decline in the number of residents would be even more staggering.

According to demographics expert Aleksey Raksha, only 4 out of 85 regions of Russia recorded a positive reproduction quotient (2.1 kids per woman or more): Chechnya, Tyva, Nenetsky Autonomous Okrug, and Republic of Altai. In the rest of the regions, there are not enough births to support the natural reproduction of population.

Raksha also pointed out that statistics of Chechnya and nearby republics of the Caucasus region may be somewhat tricky. Republics are getting funding based on the size of population, thus the calculations may be slightly or seriously incorrect towards higher numbers than in reality. For instance, people who left to work in other areas of Russia (Moscow is a popular spot with higher wages, where migrants gravitate towards) could be still listed as residents, in order to get more funding, deaths might be underreported, etc.

Statistics of births and pregnancies may be tricky, but overall there are fewer kids per woman are being born in recent years than during most times in the history of Russia.

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics

Apparently, statistical tricks are used widely in Russia.

For instance, many mothers from regions elect to have kids in the major city where the hospital facilities are of higher standards. Then the kids are registered as born in the city although they are residing in the region, and the number of regional births appears lower than in reality. That’s the situation in St. Petersburg region where the number of births looks shockingly low as compared to the regional centre.

Similar situation is in Moscow, where residents of the nearby regions like to book in for births. To get mothers register kids in the hospital after the birth, special “baby kits” that include items for newborns are offered upon processing documentation. Mothers wish to get the perks, register kids as born in the city, and the region appears all but deserted, the city gets more funding, and the circle continues.

Moscow and St. Petersburg are traditionally pulling in younger people due to their developed educational facilities. This means, other regions are losing their youth to Moscow and their population is aging, leaving more seniors than young couples with kids.

The effects of pandemics

In 2019 Russia recorded 1.5 birth per woman. It was expected that in 2020 it might drop to 1.47, but the pandemics is likely to make it worse.

“People are going to avoid having kids,” Raksha believes.

The trend of dwindling population has been persistent in Russia for decades. Previously the country managed to move the numbers into positive territory via incoming migration, but this is no longer enough.

Smart phones replaced lovemaking

The young generation of today is having less sex than their parents and grandparents. Young Russians also get married later, especially in larger cities.

The high level of financial inequality in Russia is another reason why people tend to have fewer children.

About 11% of Russian women born in 1989 are likely to remain childless. Among the generation of millennials (born in 1990-1999) 15-17% of females may never have children. Compared to Japan or South Korea where 35% of females remain childless it’s not too bad. In Italy and Spain 30% of females never give birth.

In the USSR only 6% of females were childless.

Today in Russia 59% of women aged 15-50 have only one child or no kids, while 41% of females have 2 children or more.

The average age of first birth in Russia is 26 years old. In most developed countries women give birth for the first time at 28-31.

Reproductive technologies such as IVF are responsible for 10% of births in countries like Denmark. In Russia their share is at 2.5%. This is one area where Russia could invest more, making it more affordable for older mothers to get pregnant, which would pay later when kids are grown up.

Read also:

• Depopulation in Russia
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• What is important for Russians in 2020?
• How many kids do Russian women want to have?