Russia’s death to birth natural growth rate has been negative for a while, and now even the inbound migration can’t keep up with the depopulation process. Russia’s population has officially recorded a decline for the first time in recent history. A recent UN report pointed out a few scenarios for Russian demographics, with the most pessimistic predicting that the country’s population would halve by 2100.
UN: The largest country in the world can lose half of its population by 2100
By the end of the century we may see Russia half-deserted, if the pessimistic scenario by United Nations comes to life, The Moscow Times reported.
Not only the country experiences the same problem as most economies of the world with the aging population and crippling birth rates, but it is also one of the countries losing millions of people to emigration every decade. Over 40% of the country’s youth dream to live elsewhere, public opinion polls show.
To complete the picture, Russia is also a popular host of new migrants from Central Asia — former USSR republics such as Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and others.
Forecasts
- The first forecast by United Nation experts predicts a drop in the population of Russia to 83.7 million by 2100. By 2050, the country will have 124.6 million inhabitants left.
- The second scenario optimistically predicts population growth to 147.2 million by 2050.
- The moderate prognosis estimates the number of Russian residents at 135.8 by 2050.
The current estimate of Russia’s population by UN is at the level of 144 million.
In 2018 the number of marriages in Russia dropped by 32% as compared to 2011. Experts explain it by the ‘demographic slump’ due to low birth rates in 1990s, as well as immature attitudes of the current youth not willing to take on responsibilities of family life.
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Up to date the most effective measures for population growth/ increased birth rate done after the Thirty Years War in the XVII. century.
The last relatively or at least mildly effective measures done last at the 70` worldwide.
“Modern” countries have nor real intent, nor the will to do any effective program pack, this includes the ones which actually held the capability in power/ leadership to do that, like Russia or Belarus.
Effective program and popularity cannot exist together, or western type democracy, or legal system based on Roman law.